Hello! I'm Jason.

I created this site to write about things that I find interesting: probability & Bayesian inference, data visualization, puzzles & games, finance, and books.


Without a doubt, getting a puppy changes your life for the better. But I wanted to quantify this somehow. I used Bayesian inference to identify whether I logged more steps in the days since our puppy arrived.

I will be presenting along with my former colleague, Zachary Brown at the Valuation Actuary Symposium later this month in Washington, D.C. Our topic is "Improving Actuarial Communication". My portion of the talk is focused on improving visual communication and the benefits that new tools like Python and Jupyter Notebooks can bring to traditional actuarial work. My full slides, presented in an interactive format using reveal.js, can be found within.

I transitioned from a role as an actuarial consultant into the world of fintech a few years ago. The actuarial profession is relatively small and extremely specialized, but I believe actuarial methods and insights can play a significant role in the burgeoning fintech field. I wrote an article for The Actuary magazine summarizing the fintech landscape and the role that actuaries should be playing in it.

It turns out you can identify a doctored coin with a fairly high degree of certainty... It just takes lots and lots of trials.

This week's riddler reminds me of a cross between sudoku or kakuro puzzles and some good old fashioned geometry... you might call them geometric sudoku puzzles!

Just kidding, no stones in this week's riddler puzzle. But before you build your campfire, what shapes can you make with the sticks?

A classroom game of hot potato based on random walks; plus, my first recognition on fivethirtyeight as a solver: my chart explaining a non-intuitive puzzle result was featured in the solutions!

As the owner of a dominant team looking to establish a dynasty, how can you stack the odds against your opponent? This week's fivethirtyeight Riddler Classic has a heavy dose of combinatorics.