Actuary & Data Scientist.
Founder of Ash Analytics, consulting for insurtech and fintech companies.
Former Milliman consultant and analytics manager at fintech and insurtech startups.
Writes at www.jtash.com.
Suppose you flip a coin 20 times and observe 12 heads.
"I'm confident the true probability lies between 0.4 and 0.6"
"Most coins are fair, but I'm willing to consider a wider range."
"I want to assume as little as possible before continuing."
Your company has a large block of life insurance policies.Each policy is sold by one of two agencies: $A$ or $B$.
Last year, mortality rates of policyholders from agency $B$ were higher than those from agency $A$, even after you controlled for age.